If Obama makes a decision based on how things are polling, than chances are he'll ok the Keystone pipeline.
See recent Pew Research Center Energy Poll, take special note of how they ask the questions:
Continued Support for Keystone XL Pipeline
Here is how that question was phrased (note: oil, oil sands, nothing on emissions from those operations):
Here is the full report, and the full questionnaire. The Pew folks have made some questionable alliances in recent years, some with former oil/gas traders. The founder was an oil-man. Are these alliances impacting their ability to carry out and report neutral public opinion polls? This one, from question to presentation, seems to have an agenda.